Citizen science and the butterfly effect
Author: Heather McCulloch
“… glistening green and gold and black, was a butterfly, very beautiful and very dead … an exquisite thing, a small thing that could upset balances and knock down a line of small dominoes and then big dominoes and then gigantic dominoes …. It couldn’t change things. Killing one butterfly couldn’t be that important! Could it?”
A sound of thunder by Ray Bradbury
Introduction
Inspired by a story read to me as a child about a butterfly's death altering history, this blog explores the butterfly effect within our interconnected world. The butterfly effect is used to illustrate the intricate relationships within natural systems and their connection to climate change, and explores how citizen science exemplifies a kind of butterfly effect, showing how small, localised actions in our interconnected world can ripple across complex systems, potentially leading to far-reaching consequences.
The butterfly effect and Black Summer firestorms
A decade after Bradbury’s story about a fateful butterfly, meteorologist Edward Lorenz coined the term the ‘butterfly effect’ to describe how tiny changes in initial conditions in dynamic systems can have significant consequences with outcomes that cannot be predicted.
The interdependent chains of cause and effect and unpredictability that Lorenz described in his work were demonstrated in the events of Australia’s 'Black Summer' of 2019/2020. Black Summer saw a series of separate, yet interrelated events (severe, multi-year drought; weather conditions; and anthropogenic climate change) converge, resulting in catastrophic bushfires that were unprecedented in scale, radiative power and impact.
The bushfires were the result of a perfect storm of conditions that was exacerbated by climate change, including strong cold fronts that passed over southeast Australia with unprecedented frequency and intensity. These cold fronts created a series of sensitive and interdependent conditions that had significant and unpredictable effects on fire behaviour. Associated with the cold fronts were 44 fire thunderstorms, which, in turn, created their own weather events, including severe downdrafts and lightning, escalating the fires in cataclysmic chain reactions.
The complex interplay of climatic, synoptic and fire conditions that occurred during Australia's Black Summer can serve as a microcosm of the intricate and interconnected systems that exist across our planet.
Bushfires and butterflies: barometers of climate change
Just as the bushfires demonstrated the devastating consequences of change in environmental conditions, the web of ecosystems that span our planet are interdependent and can react in unpredictable ways to changes in initial conditions.
Butterflies are valuable indicators of even small changes in ecosystems. Their sensitivity to environmental change is reflected in modifications in their behaviour and phenotypic traits (body mass and wing size). Their diversity and widespread distribution make them an ideal model for climate change research.
Citizen science projects, such as eButterfly, harness the collective power of individual volunteers to collect the large volumes and breadth of data required by researchers to track subtle shifts in butterfly populations, behaviours and phenotypic traits. When seemingly minor data points are combined, they can reveal patterns and trends that might otherwise go unnoticed, and can produce significant results that enhance our understanding of complex ecological systems and how they are impacted by climate change.
The Urban Microclimate Citizen Science Project
In the summer preceding Black Summer I participated in the Urban Microclimate Citizen Science Project, a collaboration between RMIT, the University of New South Wales and local councils across Australia. The Urban Microclimate Citizen Science Project was an intersectoral, multidisciplinary project. It cut across climate science, urban planning, public health, energy management, technology and social sciences, and was a collaboration between the public; researchers collaborating across universities; and federal, state and local governments throughout Australia.
As a project participant, I conducted microclimatic measurements in my home suburb of Adelaide and recorded the data (air temperature, globe temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and surface temperature). It was a hot summer’s day and, as I sweltered under the burning sun, I reflected on the harsh reality of climate change. That summer of 2018/2019 was South Australia’s hottest summer on record for mean maximum temperature, and Adelaide broke its all-time heat record with a 46.6°C (116°F) day as extreme heatwaves rolled across the country.
The data collected and recorded are being used for research relating to urban heat islands. The urban heat island effect occurs when heat from the sun is absorbed and re-emitted into surrounding areas by roads, carparks, bricks and concrete. This data collected by ‘citizen scientists’ can help policymakers anticipate future health and energy demands, and to retrofit the urban built environment and open spaces to enhance urban resilience in the face of climate change. The microclimate data that were collected in the field are particularly valuable. Studies on heat-related mortality and morbidity typically use temperature data from weather stations, which are usually located away from city centres. This data neglects the urban heat island effect, leading to inaccurate predictions of heat exposure, especially during heatwaves.
Extreme heat events increase hospital admissions, morbidity and mortality. They also have adverse effects on mental health and well-being. Because of climate change, heat events are expected to become more frequent, more intense and longer. The climate crisis is also a health crisis.
Citizen science and its benefits
Citizen science has a number of benefits beyond the collection of larger datasets that would otherwise be impossible at low cost. When people collect data in their local communities, they can develop a stronger emotional connection to the issues, and this personal investment can provide the impetus to take positive action and to advocate for change. As individuals participate in generating evidence, public awareness grows and voices across all levels of society are amplified, building momentum for change and driving evidence-based solutions.
As well as raising public awareness of important issues and facilitating consensus building for change, citizen science can improve scientific literacy at a time when disinformation is so widespread, enhancing information equity. Moreover, by leveraging technology, citizen science makes it easier for people from all levels of society and diverse backgrounds to contribute, thereby democratising research and facilitating evidence-informed policy built from socially robust perspectives. Ultimately, it is the collective power of informed and engaged citizens that will influence policies to address the complex and interwoven challenges of our time.
Conclusion
Citizen science initiatives like the Urban Microclimate Citizen Science Project have a role in addressing the complex and interrelated challenges of our time. By engaging in local actions such as measuring microclimates and tracking butterfly populations, individuals contribute to a broader understanding of climate dynamics and their impacts. Citizen science creates ripples of public education and engagement across sectors, from climate change to health and beyond. This is the butterfly effect of citizen science, where small actions catalyse far-reaching, positive changes across interconnected systems.
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To link to this article - DOI: https://doi.org/10.70253/LIAE9499
Conflict of interest
Heather is a member of the World EBHC Day Steering Committee
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this World EBHC Day Blog, as well as any errors or omissions, are the sole responsibility of the author and do not represent the views of the World EBHC Day Steering Committee, Official Partners or Sponsors; nor does it imply endorsement by the aforementioned parties.
